The hottest international rubber price stopped fal

2022-07-25
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The international rubber price stopped falling and promoted the rebound of Shanghai rubber to be stronger.

in the recent stage, as the negative factors gradually fade and the positive factors continue to emerge, Shanghai rubber has launched a strong rebound

since November, Tokyo rubber has been on the low side, stopped falling and stabilized, and launched a strong technical rebound trend. At present, it has been running to yen/kg. Due to the strong exchange rate of the US dollar, which is only equivalent to cents/kg, the price rise of spot rubber in the production area is small, and the callback pressure is also slight. Undoubtedly, the trend of Tokyo rubber is significantly stronger than that of Shanghai rubber, which constitutes a strong pull on Shanghai rubber, accounting for 35%; Steel door and window products have 6% share; Other materials and products account for 4% of the total

one of the important factors for the decline of Shanghai Rubber in the early stage was the hype about the reduction of import tariff of Tianjiao. On the one hand, China tire Association believed that the import cost of Tianjiao was high, which affected the raw material cost and product sales profit of the tire industry, so it applied to the relevant national departments for the reduction of import tariff; On the other hand, the Ministry of agriculture believes that the agricultural reclamation system should still need higher tariff protection to implement the "three rural" policy. It is widely believed that the import tariff of natural rubber will be greatly reduced from 20% to 10%, which has led to a significant decline in the import cost of natural rubber. However, recently, it has been reported that the import tariff of natural rubber has remained unchanged at 20% in the recent stage, which has also become the reason why domestic importers give up the wait-and-see attitude in the international rubber market and are forced to actively purchase. At the same time, Guangxi customs raised the import tariff on Vietnamese natural rubber, of which the small border trade tax increased by 260 yuan/ton, and the import tariff on composite rubber increased by 220 yuan/ton. In fact, under the background of shrinking supply of domestic rubber and high import costs through normal channels, Vietnam's border trade rubber has become one of the important low-cost procurement channels for consumers. The increase in import tariff of Vietnam's border trade rubber will enhance consumers' willingness to purchase domestic rubber from agricultural reclamation and Southeast Asian production areas, and limit the seasonal decline of domestic rubber and import costs

in the face of the double negative factors of macro-control policies and measures and the firmness of raw material rubber price, the domestic rubber products industry still maintains a strong growth trend, and the end consumption is undoubtedly strong, limiting the seasonal fall of rubber price. The layout is neat and clean, and there is no external receiving way to save space, and expanding the medium and long-term rise space of rubber price

at present, the turnover of the rubber market in qiongdian production area is low, and there is no market in the rubber market due to the reluctance of farmers to sell and consumers to purchase. However, due to the rising of the current price, there is no obvious Arbitrage Behavior during the buying and selling period, and the stock of Shanghai Rubber warehouse is always maintained at a small scale of more than 20000 tons. At the same time, the position of HuJiao was maintained at more than 40000 hands, and the scale increased or decreased steadily. Although there was no large amount of incremental capital entering the market, there was no large amount of on-site deposited capital closing out, and the main capital was still deposited. The long and short two-way position structure is conducive to the main force's short-term operation of buying low and selling high. It is reasonable to trigger the main force of Shanghai rubber to go long in the short market under the background of the international rubber price stabilizing

to sum up, the supply in the international rubber market has changed from growth to stability, domestic consumption is still strong, and the low price of rubber in and around the world has been supported, which has led to the strong rebound of Shanghai rubber market. Looking forward to the future, as the pressure on the international rubber production peak is reduced and the willingness of domestic import procurement is gradually strengthened, it is not ruled out that the Shanghai rubber market has evolved from a rebound to a staged recovery trend, and the futures price is expected to continue to challenge the high-end resistance area

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