Analysis of the current situation of the hottest p

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Analysis of the current situation of German printing industry

1 The value chain of German paper and printing industry. We cannot say that Germany has "printing industry". In the value chain from papermaking to printing, different industries are busily operating in the macroeconomic environment according to different rules

in this value chain, the annual sales of 327120 employees in Germany reached 56.64 billion euros. This is equivalent to 4.5% of the total sales of the entire processing industry in Germany and 5.4% of the per capita sales. Considering the waste paper, wood and pulp contributed by this industrial cluster to the paper industry and chemical fiber industry, it can be considered as an important part of the German national economy

at the same time, the comparison with the export share clearly shows that each industry in this industrial cluster has different development directions. It mainly exports to Europe, accounting for 13.7% of the total export volume. It can be seen that the printing industry has set its sights on the domestic market, and it is impossible to be compensated for the decline in domestic export requirements. Competition from new EU Member States will exacerbate this impact. Only 1750 companies have more than 20 employees. It can be seen that this is an industry characterized by small companies

exports to the EU account for 32% of European exports, indicating that the EU is like an expanded domestic market for paper processing industry. But at the same time, as a consequence of EU expansion, competition will also increase

the sales volume of German paper industry is about 12.25 billion euros, which is now occupied by multinational groups. The production capacity of the above-mentioned enterprises is optimized according to the requirements of different regions or paper grades, and the export share is about 52%. As a result, dependence on the domestic economic situation will no longer be important

there are about 110 printing and paper equipment manufacturers, which, as the fourth link in the price chain, achieved sales of 7.7 billion euros in 2004. The export share is about 80%, achieving a balanced layout among the three. Therefore, only the field of equipment production is an important growth point in the large number of exports to Asia and the United States

2. Influencing factors in the price chain

in addition to the above-mentioned different structures, the important development trends related to papermaking and printing also have a very different impact on individual enterprises. When it comes to strategic advertising concepts and products, consumption and consumer behavior are the decisive factors considered by advertising agencies, publishers and paper manufacturers. Looking at this trend from the perspective of Germany or Europe, we can find the following points:

- reading behavior becomes negative, which will affect the business of publishing houses

- the trend of using Internet as information resources is on the rise, Print will be reduced by many

- the competition of the media for the advertising budget will lead to a long-term reduction of print

- changes in consumer behavior (e-mail ordering) and complex requirements of consumers (luxury goods) will bring growth to the packaging field

in Europe, a market where printing production is almost stagnant, the impact of these factors is completely different from that of growth regions such as Asia. One evidence of this is the per capita paper consumption that has been mentioned many times. In fast-growing areas, the growth of paper and printed matter is extremely fast, which is out of proportion to the growth of other media. Therefore, the impact of the above-mentioned trends cannot be said to be a negative factor on the printing industry

3. Consumer situation - printing, paperboard and paper processing

the decrease in advertising expenditure and publication production caused by the market environment has seriously affected the situation of our consumers. In Germany, the European Union, the United States and other countries, the situation is the same. The serious decline in sales over the past three years has led to the bankruptcy of German enterprises for three years. In 2003, the production capacity reached the lowest, less than 80%

since 2004, the economic situation has only slowly recovered. The primary driving force comes from the improvement of the German economic environment, such as the increase in customer orders and the rebound in advertising spending. In 2004, the output increased by 2.6%, which made the production capacity increase slightly to 82.3%, but the sales increased by only 1.5%, which is not very satisfactory, indicating that there is still competition pressure. Therefore, judging from the average situation in 2004, there is still a certain distance between the industrial state and the degree of satisfaction, and the trend of continuous and slow reduction in the number of employees is a manifestation

at present, the vision of printing enterprises can only be assessed as generally optimistic. Although the association of printing enterprises predicted an increase of 2% in 2005, there is still fierce price competition, and from publishing houses to well-known printing companies, due to the price pressure put forward by end customers, products will continue to be transferred abroad. Recently, the import and export rate has exceeded 50% for the first time

for German printing enterprises, the competitive pressure caused by imported printing materials will increase due to the eastward expansion of the European Union. The printed matter imported from the Czech Republic is equal to the total amount imported from the original EU countries, and it is still growing at a rate of 18.3%. Commercial printing of advertisements and product catalogs is the main field. Large chain stores or brand companies have begun to move their production sites out of the EU

the same trend has been seen in the production of paper and paperboard products. The first is the production of standard packaging. Christine Drake, vice president of industry, labor and economics of the Vietnam Automotive Research Center, pointed out that more and more production sites have been transferred to neighboring countries

in the years of continuous prosperity after the reunification of Germany, low utilization rate and disproportionate high investment, poor anti-aging ability and poor sensor materials will affect the accuracy of sensors, resulting in excess production capacity. Recently, their underutilization has further worsened price competition. This situation is getting worse and worse with the new equipment improving the production capacity again. Therefore, the brutal competition and mergers and acquisitions in the printing industry have not yet ended

in addition to economic elements, we must also consider the situation of technical structure. The digitalization of data, lossless transmission through the Internet, soft proofing and other technological achievements and new services will lead to more and more dispersion of printing work in the future. Of course, this dispersion will transcend national boundaries. Although the order volume cannot be counted, there is no doubt that this will bring far-reaching changes to the structure of the printing industry

searchable information is being transferred to the Internet. This trend is irresistible and has been strengthened by customers' usage habits. In some areas, this situation is not obvious, but in the field of classified small advertising (real estate and second-hand markets) or tourism, such networks have been established

due to the recovery of advertising expenditure, we can now see that printing orders are slowly increasing. This is important because 63% of all products rely on advertising directly or indirectly. From 1998 to 2001, the average annual advertising expenditure in Germany was 5.8.% The speed of. It is equivalent to an increase in sales from 13.6 billion euros to 24.6 billion euros, an increase of 80%. However, the growth rate of advertising sales is lower than that of GDP, only 94% of it. We can see that the relationship between the two is no longer a fixed model, and the degree of growth will not continue to be the same. A forecast in October 2002 pointed out that the largest growth rate of the advertising industry was 3%. There is little possibility for TV and radio advertisements to increase their market share due to their rust and corrosion resistance. In 2006, the expenditure of online advertising accounted for about 2% of the total advertising expenditure. Therefore, printed matter has slight growth potential, mainly because in terms of establishing and maintaining brands, print media is still the first media, and this trend has become more and more obvious

The Zaw chart shows that print media accounts for 2/3 of this pie chart, and is still the most important medium of advertising. Traditional printed advertisements such as leaflets, catalogues and brochures are stable and still important advertising media. In order to reduce the divergence loss and achieve good advertising effect, it will shift to direct advertising, which has begun to grow in the past few years. This field offers special potential for digital print media

in the past 15 years, many brand product advertisements owned by newspapers and magazines have been robbed by television. With the establishment of private broadcasting companies in the 1980s, this situation continues and has developed to a certain extent. We don't expect the share between these media and future media to change much

not all printing production has declined due to the reduction of advertising expenditure. The production of folding boxes, flexible packaging, labels and other packaging products is not actually threatened, but slightly affected by economic trends. In many fields, consumer behavior is worldwide. The increasing mail ordering business brought by Amazon, eBay and other companies has also made a positive contribution

in the past 30 years, the output value of paper and paperboard has increased from 3.65 billion euros to 141. It is corrosion-resistant to all chemicals 6 euros. This year, the sales volume of German packaging is only 8billion euros. Labels (1.27 billion euros), household paper products and toilet paper increased significantly

of course, we expect the same development in the world, especially in folding cartons, flexible packaging, labels, toilet paper and other fields. A 2003 data sheet provided by Pro carton Association shows that the consumption of paperboard in China and other Asian countries has great potential, but the European and American markets also have strong growth capacity

4. Manufacturing of printing and paper-making equipment

the worldwide economic recession is accompanied by political turmoil for different reasons, resulting in a very tense situation faced by equipment manufacturers. The previous description of the situation of the German printing industry can also be applied to other important industries with only a few minor changes. Let's first look at the long-term development prospects from the perspective of manufacturers

the output of printing and papermaking equipment has almost tripled in the past 20 years, with the highest value in 2001. In this regard, we should also add the factor shown in this figure that we did not consider: the increase in the use of imported equipment by Member States in the past few years. Although the importance of the target purchase market has been shifting between Europe, the United States and Asia in the past 20 years, the increase in output is fully supported by the continuous growth of exports. Today, the share of exports to the 25 EU countries is 38.5%, of which 50% of products are sold in Europe. In the past five years, compared with the United States, Asia has continued to grow and make profits, so now it has become the second largest target region for exports with a share of 24.8%

export market

the phenomenon of increasing exports to local regions clearly shows that the stagnation of the EU has reached a high level, and moderate investment has been made in North America. Asia, Latin America and other European countries have the fastest growth rate. The absolute value shows that the two traditional markets of the United States and Europe are still the focus of our exports

in the German machinery manufacturing industry, although there are adverse monetary factors, the printing and papermaking equipment with an export share of 80% still reaches the highest export quota

but this does not mean that the future is guaranteed. The globalization of production, which is not shown in these figures, will occur for different reasons. The main reasons are tariff restrictions, exchange rate fluctuations, and of course, the impact of costs. Germany is at a critical juncture - being transferred

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