The steel export is expected to reach the peak, and the steel industry is expected to enter the reduction adjustment period. The steel industry is expected to reach the peak, and the steel industry is expected to enter the reduction adjustment period. Lixinchuang, Executive Deputy Secretary General of CISA and President of metallurgical industry planning and Research Institute, said on December 7 that in 2015, China's steel export will reach the peak of 110million tons, which will not be so high in the future due to the impact of trade friction, But it will remain high
he believes that this is a feature of China's iron and steel industry entering a reduction development period, which will last for at least 10 years
according to the 2016 steel demand results report released by China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute, China's crude steel output will drop to 806million tons in 2015, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1%
lixinchuang believes that this is a signal that "China's steel production has not decreased in the past 20 years, which is the first time that the production has decreased"
production reduction helps to resolve overcapacity
resolving the serious excess capacity is a problem that the current government has been trying to solve. On october15,2013, the State Council issued the guiding opinions on resolving the contradiction of serious overcapacity (hereinafter referred to as GF No. 41 document). Steel, cement, electrolytic aluminum, flat glass and ships are the key control objects
in that year, according to the data released by China Iron and Steel Industry Association, the main business of large and medium-sized iron and steel enterprises was still profitable, although the sales profit margin was only 0.62%. In 2014, the main business of large and medium-sized iron and steel enterprises was still profitable, and the sales profit margin increased to 0.85%. However, in the first October of 2015, the main business loss of the 88 members of Sinosteel association was as high as 72billion yuan, with a loss surface of nearly 50%, that is, nearly half of the member enterprises suffered losses. This is a real winter moment for China's steel industry
lixinchuang believes that China's iron and steel industry should and has entered the stage of reduction development. He stressed that "production reduction" is not "de capacity" -- "China's iron and steel industry has been reducing production since 2015, and this trend will continue. It is not simply de capacity, but actually reducing production"
reduction development will bring more steel enterprises to shut down. "According to incomplete statistics, so far, dozens of iron and steel enterprises have been shut down, involving more than 60 million tons of production capacity." Lixinchuang said
at present, there are more than 500 iron and steel enterprises listed in the domestic statistics. Among the 88 members of CISA, 80% of the enterprises produce about 90million tons to 100million tons of steel annually
due to the absolute decline of consumption, the domestic steel production has declined, and the market is depressed, but the foreign market is relatively hot. In 2014, China exported 93.78 million tons of steel, a year-on-year increase of 50.5%. Lixinchuang said that in the first October, China's steel exports increased by 24% year-on-year. In 2015, exports will reach a peak of 110million tons, accounting for about 10% of the total steel production
under the circumstances of sluggish trade situation, the state does not encourage exports, and the increase of steel trade frictions, China's steel exports can maintain a double-digit growth against the trend. Li Xinchuang believes that this is because China's steel "has excellent price, good quality and good service"
"if you can't do these three points, if the quality is not good, no one will want it. How can you export it?" Li Xinchuang disagrees with some countries' accusations that China's steel products compete at low prices and that the government gives subsidies
"this is determined by the market," said Li Xinchuang. He made eight reports at the international forum in 2015, and each report mentioned the export of China's steel products
"I don't think we have any government subsidies. The relocation of individual enterprises belongs to an individual case. Western countries are very unfriendly to us because of this. This discrimination is wrong." Lixinchuang said that, especially at the OECD meeting in 2015, he spent an hour and a half trying to refute the representatives of the United States, the European Union, Japan and other countries on this issue, while the original time for each person to give a speech was only 15 minutes. "I never tire of telling them the truth. Mistakes always have to be corrected."
recently, nine American and European Iron and steel associations have proposed that China's excess steel production capacity will lead to serious overcapacity in the global iron and steel industry, and China's exports will reach a new high in 2016, thus raising doubts and objections to China's market economy status as agreed upon by China's accession to the WTO [Weibo] in December 2016
in this regard, lixinchuang said: "China's iron and steel production capacity is absolutely surplus at the age of 46, which is no different. But I ask a simple question? What is the economy of overcapacity? It must be a market economy. The economic department (staff) of the US embassy comes to me every year to communicate. I ask him, since you say I have overcapacity, I must be a market economy, and you don't admit it."
according to the statistics of the "Dongguan corps" in the field of new materials released by the Ministry of commerce at the beginning of the year, 97 trade frictions were involved in China in 2014, of which 27 were involved in steel products, accounting for nearly 30%, which became the hardest hit area of trade frictions
in the first half of 2015, China's steel products involved 58 cases of anti-dumping, countervailing and trade safeguard measures, an increase of 12 cases compared with the same period last year, involving 20 countries in Europe, America, Asia, Africa and Latin America. Among them, the United States initiated the most trade frictions against China, with 11 cases; Australia and the European Union ranked second and third, with 9 and 7 cases respectively
"some western customers also asked that they (the party that initiated the trade remedy investigation) were wrong. Why didn't Chinese enterprises respond to the lawsuit? Our users can support it together." Lixinchuang said that Chinese iron and steel enterprises did not act in the face of "anti-dumping" and some cases were not handled in time, so how to repair the spring testing machine when it encountered a fault would affect exports
therefore, lixinchuang predicts that the relevant data of 201 show that China's steel exports will fall back in six years, but will remain at a high level. In his view, maintaining a high level of exports and increasing the proportion of exports is one of the characteristics of the iron and steel industry at the stage of production reduction
there are three characteristics in the production reduction stage of the iron and steel industry: this stage is a long-term process that lasts for at least 10 years; In this stage, the process structure changes; We should eliminate a large number of backward production capacity and promote innovation and development at the same time